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Experiment Results

SPY · 15-minute candles · Heikin-Ashi + RSI(14) + CMO(14) · Strategy v1

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Research only — alignment is an observation, not a trading signal. Results measure the change from the signal candle's close to the close 60 minutes later, within the same trading session. No transaction costs are included.

Historical research · before Oct 14, 2026

🟢 First bullish alignment
53.33%
Directional accuracy · 16 / 30 resolved

34 alignment starts · 0 pending · 4 unavailable

Average 60-minute move: -0.0076%

Correct: 16 · Incorrect: 14 · Unchanged: 0
🔴 First bearish alignment
65.00%
Directional accuracy · 13 / 20 resolved

22 alignment starts · 0 pending · 2 unavailable

Average 60-minute move: -0.0346%

Correct: 13 · Incorrect: 7 · Unchanged: 0

Forward test · Oct 14, 2026 onward

🟢 First bullish alignment
51.35%
Directional accuracy · 19 / 37 resolved

43 alignment starts · 0 pending · 6 unavailable

Average 60-minute move: +0.0400%

Correct: 19 · Incorrect: 18 · Unchanged: 0
🔴 First bearish alignment
51.22%
Directional accuracy · 21 / 41 resolved

46 alignment starts · 0 pending · 5 unavailable

Average 60-minute move: -0.0663%

Correct: 21 · Incorrect: 20 · Unchanged: 0

Recent alignment starts

Time (ET)PeriodAlignment60-minute moveOutcome
Nov 13, 3:45 PMForwardBullish—Unavailable
Nov 13, 2:45 PMForwardBullish+0.0823%Correct
Nov 13, 2:15 PMForwardBullish-0.0922%Incorrect
Nov 13, 1:00 PMForwardBearish+0.2303%Incorrect
Nov 13, 11:45 AMForwardBearish+0.2320%Incorrect
Nov 13, 9:45 AMForwardBearish-0.4865%Correct
Nov 12, 2:15 PMForwardBearish-0.1740%Correct
Nov 12, 12:30 PMForwardBullish-0.1813%Incorrect
Nov 12, 12:00 PMForwardBullish-0.1419%Incorrect
Nov 12, 11:00 AMForwardBullish-0.0919%Incorrect
Nov 12, 9:30 AMForwardBearish+0.1598%Incorrect
Nov 10, 2:15 PMForwardBullish+0.1122%Correct
Nov 10, 12:30 PMForwardBearish+0.2193%Incorrect
Nov 10, 10:15 AMForwardBearish-0.2295%Correct
Nov 10, 9:30 AMForwardBearish-0.1895%Correct
Nov 9, 2:30 PMForwardBullish-0.0027%Incorrect
Nov 9, 1:30 PMForwardBullish+0.1820%Correct
Nov 9, 11:45 AMForwardBullish+0.1724%Correct
Nov 9, 9:30 AMForwardBullish+0.3964%Correct
Nov 6, 3:15 PMForwardBearish—Unavailable
Nov 6, 2:15 PMForwardBearish+0.0054%Incorrect
Nov 6, 1:00 PMForwardBearish+0.1912%Incorrect
Nov 5, 3:00 PMForwardBearish—Unavailable
Nov 5, 11:30 AMForwardBearish-0.6182%Correct
Nov 5, 9:30 AMForwardBearish-1.5833%Correct

Data health

Latest stored candle: Nov 13, 3:45 PM ET. A normal full SPY trading session has 26 fifteen-minute candles. Current or early-close sessions may have fewer.

Trading date (ET)Stored candlesCheck
2026-11-132626 candles
2026-11-122626 candles
2026-11-112626 candles
2026-11-102626 candles
2026-11-092626 candles
2026-11-062626 candles
2026-11-052626 candles
2026-11-042626 candles
2026-11-032626 candles
2026-11-022626 candles
2026-10-302626 candles
2026-10-292626 candles

Method: an alignment start is a transition from a different recorded alignment to bullish or bearish. A 60-minute outcome requires a matching candle exactly four 15-minute intervals later on the same ET trading date. Pending means the target candle time is still in the future; unavailable means the target falls outside the session or its candle is missing after the target time. Consecutive signals and outcomes can overlap; small samples are not proof of predictive value. The forward-test cutoff is fixed at October 14, 2026 (ET). This page does not place trades or modify the database.